"We need to develop approaches and solutions that enable investments in resilience"

Jonas J?rin, the FRS programme in Singapore has been working on resilience topics for ten years. What exactly does resilience mean?
In general, resilience is the ability of a system to manage a disruption. A system can be an individual person, a population group, an organisation or a network. In Singapore, the FRS programme adopted a systems perspective to study how infrastructure, socio-technical systems, society and the environment interact and how cities can better anticipate, absorb and recover from disruptions.

What was the original idea behind launching the programme?
At ETH, we used to deal with resilience primarily within the context of risk research. The scientific idea was to pursue resilience as a concept and establish it in various fields of research. Singapore was very interested in the topic because, although it is a small country, it is very open in terms of trade relations, while pursuing a self-sufficient approach to security. Consequently, ETH decided to work with the Singaporean authorities to set up a programme to help Singapore strengthen its security-relevant areas.

What does a resilience concept entail?
In the resilience concept, we have formalised the different dimensions of resilience mathematically, i.e. the robustness, redundancy and also the recoverability of a system. This was a prerequisite for quantifying resilience.

How has the programme developed over the years?
The first five years focused on basic research. During this time, the focus was on individual systems. In the second phase, we looked at how systems influence each other in the event of disruptions. In addition, there was an increasing emphasis on applying the findings to specific projects.

Which partners were involved in realizing these projects?
We mainly worked with government agencies, but we also engaged in a project with the Changi Airport Group, which operates Singapore's airport. The aim was to assess how vulnerable the Skytrain is to disruptions. This is the train that connects the various airport terminals with the city. Together with the Ministry of Culture, Community and Youth, we analysed social media data to analyse and gauge public sentiment, while the Centre for Liveable Cities was interested in social resilience.

Are there any projects whose findings can be applied to Switzerland?
Naturally, considering that most of the project managers also conduct research in Zurich. The Microclimate Digital Platform, for example, was developed for both Singapore and Zurich. This digital model visualises the microclimate in cities and targets to support urban planners. Another example is the Mobile Sensing Platform, which can be used to make transport infrastructure more resilient. We conducted field trials in Singapore and Switzerland for this purpose and the platform is now undergoing further development in Switzerland. Finally, our studies on social resilience compared Switzerland with Singapore.

What were the studies on social resilience addressing?
The coronavirus shaped the start of the second phase of our programme, which started in 2020. During the pandemic, we explored questions such as whether political systems influence social resilience, among other issues. Specifically, we investigated whether the greater latitudes of freedom that the population in Switzerland enjoys had a positive impact on social structures. However, we were unable to establish such a link. While people in Switzerland were able to meet up in person during the pandemic, the population of Singapore only maintained contact online. We concluded that social structures are quite stable and function relatively independently of political systems or interventions. From this, we were able to conclude that social resilience is robust, but also rather sluggish at the same time.

The programme in Singapore is being discontinued, although the topic of resilience is still relevant. Why is it not being continued?
That was the plan right from the outset. The National Research Foundation funds programmes for a period of five years and extends them for an additional phase if the results are satisfactory and viable. After that, the programmes normally come to an end. However, the end of the programme does not mean that research comes to a halt. We held a symposium in April presenting our research results with representatives from Singaporean universities also taking part. They will continue to engage in resilience research and carry on our work.

To what extent has the programme in Singapore influenced resilience research at ETH?
Our programme has not only advanced resilience research in Singapore and at ETH ¨C far more, the entire research community has benefited from it. Among other things, we have launched the International Conference on Resilient Systems, where researchers from all over the world meet annually to discuss resilience issues. Next year, it will take place in Delft.

Where is resilience research heading in the future?
The concept of resilience is well established in various fields of research. The next step is the transfer from research into practice. We are facing more and more disruptions worldwide: wars and their consequences, disruptions in global trade due to tariffs, storms and forest fires. In the future, we will have to deal much more with polycrises. This means that we will have to develop everyday processes, but also processes in organisations, in such a way that they can withstand known and unknown disruptions on a permanent basis.

What is needed to achieve this?
The goal for the next ten years is to make resilience measurable and achieve standardisation, which will enable the development of solutions that facilitate investment in resilience. Currently, investment decisions are made by individuals or organisations. The topic needs to be established at various levels: in nations, municipalities, companies, associations and all the way through to households. After all, resilience is relevant for all of us.

When you talk about investment, how does resilience relate to insurance solutions?
The insurance industry quantifies risks and brings products to market that organisations and companies can use to protect themselves. Resilience augments the insurance system. We know that only around 40 percent of the infrastructure that could theoretically be insured is actually insured worldwide. In the event of a claim, the public sector is then called upon to act. Its task is to protect residents. Consequently, the public sector has an interest in ensuring that natural events such as landslides or forest fires cause as little destruction as possible.

And how do you intend to persuade people to invest in resilience?
For example, by showing what can be gained from resilience. We can calculate the potential damage that would result from a certain disruption, as well as the cost of measures to prevent it. The resulting difference is the resilience gain. In general, our research aims to enable certain hazards to be identified at an earlier stage and preventive measures to be taken to avoid damage ¨C and thereby costs. That is the course that we must pursue.