Daniel Möckli, how can Switzerland maintain its security and prosperity?
The demise of the rules-based international order is jeopardising Switzerland’s success model, says security expert Daniel M?ckli. He believes the country faces difficult positioning issues.
“The world is entering a new era. The liberal international order that has brought Switzerland security and prosperity is coming apart. Russia, China and the US have ceased supporting it. The US’s military and economic dominance, once the foundation of its role as a stabilising force, now primarily serves to assert its narrowly defined interests with its allies and adversaries.
In the wake of Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine and the seismic shift in US foreign policy, Europe’s security situation has deteriorated significantly. This holds true for Switzerland, too.
The expert
Daniel M?ckli heads the Think Tank at the Center for Security Studies (CSS) at ETH Zurich. His work focuses on geopolitical developments and European and Swiss security policy. He was previously head of Policy Planning at the Federal Department of Foreign Affairs (FDFA) and advised two Federal Councillors on security policy issues. He discovered his passion for strategic planning while studying history at the University of Zurich.
The contours of a new world order are not yet clear. The transition period is currently being shaped by power politics, escalating violence and a multitude of crises. There are ongoing global power shifts. Authoritarian regimes are gaining ground. The world is becoming multipolar, less Western-dominated and less democratic.
Geopolitical tensions are spilling over into the economy. Global trade is becoming repoliticised and fragmented. The major powers are vying for control of trade and investment flows, supply chains and technologies. Small and medium-sized countries are finding themselves increasingly vulnerable again to the whims of international heavyweights.
Switzerland was one of the main beneficiaries from the rules-based international order and in many ways has been remarkably successful in recent decades. Today, its success model is being called into question in my opinion. It is confronted with arbitrary tariffs signifying a new power dynamic, while its European neighbours criticise its neutrality and War Material Act. Neo-imperial Russia has categorised it as an “unfriendly state”. Switzerland is caught in the crossfire of world politics and coming under increasing pressure to stop sitting on the fence.
It has reacted relatively cautiously to the Zeitenwende to date. Given the multi-party nature of its government, the Federal Council is being challenged to formulate a coherent response to the changes. Parliament too struggles to find common ground. And compared to Brussels, for instance, there has long been little sense of urgency in Bern. Debates have been more about finance than strategy, with the debt brake setting tight limits on the defence budget and aid for Ukraine.
The tariffs shock has revealed just how vulnerable Switzerland is as a small but prosperous country. The question of how it can continue its success story is becoming increasingly urgent. In addition to individual political decisions, I see four ways in which Switzerland can respond to the increased pressure it faces:
First, Switzerland needs to be clearer about what it wants in this new world. Security, economic and foreign policy need to be more intricately linked. This also requires greater coordination within individual policy areas – both between its security, defence and armaments policies and between its foreign economic policy and its location promotion measures.
Second, anticipation and scenario planning are becoming increasingly important. This also applies to the geo-economic risks that Switzerland faces as an open and export-oriented economy. Academia has a role to play in such efforts.
Third, Switzerland must become more resilient and less vulnerable – both in terms of its security and its economy. The country should take a holistic approach to strengthening its resilience to hybrid warfare, crises, natural hazards and external shocks. In this regard, too, research can make a contribution.
Fourth, Switzerland needs partners. Its independent and globally oriented policy outlook can well remain viable if it is more firmly anchored in the European security, economic and research collaborative areas.
In my view, this also applies to our national defence capability: Switzerland will not be able to achieve the level of defence capability it is targeting and needs without security cooperation. The country has much to offer due to its innovative strengths and credibility. Establishing trustworthy, rule-based partnerships is more crucial than ever if Switzerland is to maintain its prosperity.”
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